No, Muslims Didn’t vote BJP in UP. Their Votes were Splitted Between SP and BSP


Uttar Pradesh : Every one talking about  Muslim support for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh given the scale of its victory, Even BJP ministers has commented that Muslim Voted us in support of Triple talak.


According to analysis, there’s no evidence that any given number of Muslims voted BJP in Uttar Pradesh as claimed by BJP, their vote were just divided between SP and BSP.


1. No evidence that Muslims voted for the BJP.

There are many claims and statements of political leaders rounding after elections results, but there is just no evidence for this. There is not a single constituency where the BJP’s vote-share exceeds that of the Hindu population of that constituency.

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Sahibabad is the only constituency where the Vote share is Close to Hindu Population where BJP candidate, Sunil Kumar Sharma, won 61% of the votes, while the share of Hindu population in the constituency is between 60 and 65%. Data on voteshares and the Hindu and Muslim population come from Datanet India, which compiled the data from the Election Commission of India and the Census of India respectively.

Also Read : Muslim MLC will get a chance to Represent Muslim Community in UP: Venkaiah Naidu after BJP’s win


In Sahibabad constituency, the Congress and BSP candidates between them got 36% of the votes; the Muslim population of that constituency is between 35 and 40%.

2. BJP candidates winning from a Majority Muslim population Constituency does not mean that Muslims voted for the BJP.

If you look at above picture this doubt will be erased off, look at BJP vote count and SP+BSP Vote counts, Its almost same. In a first-past-the-post system, candidates typically need between 30-35% of the voteshare in a constituency to win. In this election, BJP candidates did particularly well.

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What most forget is that even in UP, There are only 7 constituencies in UP with more than 50% Muslims (meaning that any party can win the state without a single Muslim vote)–and the Samajwadi Party won all of these Muslim Majority constituencies. The BJP’s winning streak essentially begins when the Muslim population goes below 45%.


3. Strategic voting failed

Out of 82 constituencies with more than 30% Muslims population, the BJP won 62 out of 82. but in 60 of these constituencies, SP+BSP combined voteshare was higher than that of the Muslim population. If we look at all BJP wining seats there are nearly 214 such seats where SP+BSP vote count was more then BJP vote count. Given that in a majority of these constituencies both or one of the SP/ INC and BSP had a Muslim candidate, it is very likely that the Muslim vote got split between the SP and the BSP.

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So rather than strategically voting to keep the BJP out, it could be argued that UP’s Muslims actually failed at strategic voting.

Source : Huff Post India



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